University of Twente Student Theses
Antecedents and Predictive Modelling of Teacher Absenteeism in Dutch Secondary Education
Engelbertink, Jelle (2025) Antecedents and Predictive Modelling of Teacher Absenteeism in Dutch Secondary Education.
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| Abstract: | Teacher absenteeism poses a significant challenge in Dutch secondary education, with absence rates surpassing the national average. It affects student performance, incurs organisational costs, and disrupts school culture. Although teacher absenteeism has been widely studied internationally, little is known about its antecedents within the Dutch context, and predictive models tailored to this setting are lacking despite growing practical demand. This study addresses these gaps by identifying key antecedents of teacher absenteeism and applying machine learning (ML) models to predict absence duration categories (short-, medium-, and long-term). A multi-method sequential design was adopted across three studies. Study 1 involved eight qualitative interviews with education professionals to identify context-specific antecedents. Study 2 used regression analyses (OLS and Poisson) on HR data from 1,150 teachers (2023–2024) to assess the relationship between various antecedents and absenteeism, measured by duration and frequency. Study 3 applied Naïve Bayes and Support Vector Machine models to predict absence duration. Key antecedents include gender, prior absenteeism, tenure, working hours, team-level absenteeism, and employment status, while school type and team FTE emerged as novel factors. The Naïve Bayes model achieved 90.7% accuracy and a 0.94 F1-score. This study enhances our understanding of teacher absenteeism and addresses the practical need for predictive analytics in educational context. Thereby, optimising proactive absenteeism management strategies for high-risk groups to enhance sustainable employability, ultimately reducing teacher absenteeism. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences |
| Programme: | Business Administration MSc (60644) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/106181 |
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