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Evaluating ridership prediction methods for BRT corridors : balancing accuracy and time- efficiency
Pronk, Kirsten (2025) Evaluating ridership prediction methods for BRT corridors : balancing accuracy and time- efficiency.
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| Abstract: | The implementation of Bus Rapid Transit, BRT, within the Netherlands has been a topic of discussion for quite some years, as it is a sustainable and cost-effective way of public transport. BRT systems, characterized by high service levels and their efficiency, have the potential to reduce car dependency and improve regional mobility. While previous studies have identified potential BRT corridors, they have not addressed the critical question of expected ridership. Accurate ridership forecasting is essential to justify investments in new corridors, yet it remains unclear which prediction method offers the best balance between accuracy and practical feasibility. While various methods exist for predicting ridership, it remains unclear which approach offers the greatest accuracy and efficiency for the prediction of BRT ridership. Therefore, the aim of this research is to find the most accurate and time-efficient prediction method for BRT corridors in the Netherlands. The four methods that are being researched are a comparative case study, the logit model, a regression model and the gravity model. These methods are assessed using a case study of the Assen Kloosterveen-Groningen bus corridor. Once the best method is known Keypoint Consultancy can use the tool for their clients. The comparative case study relies on identifying a similar corridor using demographic and geographic criteria. The logit model uses modal split and transport-related variables to estimate demand. The regression model incorporates operational variables and coefficients sourced from literature, while the gravity model estimates ridership based on population, employment, travel time, and a calibrated scaling constant. A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is used to compare the outcomes and determine the most suitable method. The criteria of the MCDA were accuracy, time-efficiency, data availability and computational tools/skills needed. While the logit model produced the most accurate results, the regression model emerged as the most balanced option according to the MCDA. It offers the best trade-off between accuracy and time efficiency, making it well-suited for practical application. In contrast, the comparative case study method was the least accurate and most time-consuming and is therefore not recommended for future use. The gravity model demonstrated a reasonable accuracy but as it is connected to the comparative case study, it lacks time-efficiency. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Bachelor) |
| Faculty: | ET: Engineering Technology |
| Programme: | Civil Engineering BSc (56952) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/106875 |
| Export this item as: | BibTeX EndNote HTML Citation Reference Manager |
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