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Assessing spatial and temporal variability in maize yield in Kenya with crop modeling
Qasim, Mujtaba (2025) Assessing spatial and temporal variability in maize yield in Kenya with crop modeling.
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Abstract: | Understanding how climate variability and change influence agricultural productivity is critical for food security, particularly in climate-sensitive regions such as Kenya. This study assesses the spatio-temporal variability of maize yield in Kenya over the period 1983–2016 by integrating climate trend analysis with crop modelling. Six climate indices derived from CHIRPS precipitation and ERA5 temperature datasets were computed, including mean annual precipitation, consecutive dry days (CDD10), consecutive wet days (CWD10), mean temperature, hot days (>25°C), and cold days (<15°C). The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to detect monotonic changes in these indices across Kenya. Concurrently, maize yields were simulated using the DSSAT CERES-Maize model, calibrated with soil profiles and crop management data. Results showed significant warming trends, particularly in the increase of hot days and decline in cold days, alongside regionally variable precipitation patterns. Simulated maize yields revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity and temporal fluctuations, with notable yield declines in areas experiencing prolonged dry spells. Pearson correlation analysis indicated strong negative associations between maize yield and CDD10, while the relationship with other indices varied spatially. This highlights the importance of localized adaptation strategies. The combined use of climate indices and simulation offers insights for climate-smart agriculture and future vulnerability mapping. |
Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
Faculty: | ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation |
Subject: | 48 agricultural science, 50 technical science in general, 74 (human) geography, cartography, town and country planning, demography |
Programme: | Spatial Engineering MSc (60962) |
Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/107883 |
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