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Minimizing Imbalance in an Insurance Housing Portfolio : A Data-Driven Approach
Vaatstra, H.S.J. (2025) Minimizing Imbalance in an Insurance Housing Portfolio : A Data-Driven Approach.
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| Abstract: | This research investigates the long-term impact of demographic ageing on the residential insurance portfolio of Company X and explores strategies to mitigate its effects. The ageing Dutch population and declining birth rates pose risks to the sustainability of the portfolio, potentially reducing the number of insured clients and leading to downward pressure on market share and upward pressure on premiums. To address this, a forecasting model was developed using historical inflow and outflow data segmented by gender, age, household composition, and either province or social class. The Holt-Winters method was applied to project portfolio trends over 30 years, incorporating mortality data to estimate client development and linking it to market share and premium evolution. The model shows that without intervention, the number of clients will decline, while the housing market continues to grow, resulting in shrinking market share. A negative correlation between premium and client count may cause a self-reinforcing loop of rising premiums and further outflow. A scenario analysis was added, simulating targeted marketing campaigns. Results indicate that a five-year intensive campaign focused on young adults (18–46) in western provinces is most effective. Social class targeting adds little value. Company X should prioritize data-driven, regional marketing to maintain portfolio stability. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences |
| Subject: | 50 technical science in general |
| Programme: | Industrial Engineering and Management MSc (60029) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/107896 |
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