University of Twente Student Theses


Probabilistisch ramen : onderzoek naar het berekenen van de bandbreedte conform de SSK

Bennekom, Ing. G. van (2006) Probabilistisch ramen : onderzoek naar het berekenen van de bandbreedte conform de SSK.

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Abstract:Significant increase in actual costs of large Dutch civil projects compared to original estimates have contributed to the fact that the traditional way of estimating construction cost is losing support. Nowadays the Dutch government no longer accepts the traditional way of forecasting construction costs to determine a project budget. The exceeding of reserved budgets in the past have helped to create an environment in which project uncertainties and uncertainty in the forecasting of the investment costs only acceptable are when those uncertainties are well founded. A mathematical solution to concretize uncertainties has been adopted in a probabilistic way of estimation construction costs. Under supervision of the CROW2 this probabilistic model has been crystallized and led to the publication of the CROW publication 137. The publication has presented a standard method to estimate cost in a probabilistic way. The main characteristics are found in the uniformity in technical language and standardization of the cost assignment. Main costumers in the Netherlands like ProRail and RWS prescribe the publication. This suggests that the probabilistic model of estimating investment costs is completely developed. However the opinion of Holland Railconsult is that the suggested model has to be improved. In the traditional way project uncertainties and the uncertainties of the cost estimates are normally determined in a top down manner based on knowledge and expertise of the cost engineer. The innovative part of the model suggested by CROW is the statement that project uncertainties and deviations have to be calculated in stead of determined heuristically. The consequence is that bottom up for every cost item the deviation has to be examined, the same applies for the so called project uncertainties. In this thesis the CROW publication has been examined thoroughly. The strong and the weak points are identified and highlighted. Special attention was paid to the theoretical side of the publication. The possibility of designing a spreadsheet model for estimating construction costs in a probabilistic way has been explored.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Holland Railconsult
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026)
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