University of Twente Student Theses


De kansen gekeerd : een onderzoek naar de complexiteit van Bayesiaanse Belief netwerken

Bouw, M.P.J.J. (2006) De kansen gekeerd : een onderzoek naar de complexiteit van Bayesiaanse Belief netwerken.

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Abstract:This thesis ‘De kansen gekeerd’ is the final product of the research on the complexity of Bayesian Belief Networks at the Dutch organisation for science TNO. This research is part of a program by TNO entitled ‘Personal Safety, in relation to ammunition- and explosioneffects’. This program researches the personal safety of Defence employees in infrastructure in relation to ammunition and explosive effects. The research program combines physical effect models, originating from the three effects of explosions (blast, heat and fragments), with the physical effect models of the impact of explosions on infrastructure and humans. This combination of physical effect models enables us to predict the number of possible casualties in case of an explosion. This requires a probabilistic technique. In the Personal Safety program TNO is using the Bayesian Belief Network technique. The Bayesian Belief Network is a decision supporting model that can indicate the probabilistic relations of a set of variables. The model links dependent events through which probabilistic relations develop. The Bayesian Belief Network makes it possible to calculate the number of casualties in case of a certain scenario. Based on these calculations important decisions can be made about the safety of Defence employees.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
TNO Defensie en veiligheid
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026)
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