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Gevolgen van toekomstverandering voor het Natte Hart van Nederland in 2050

Donk, H. van (2009) Gevolgen van toekomstverandering voor het Natte Hart van Nederland in 2050.

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Abstract:The Wet Heart of the Netherlands is the area that contains the IJsselmeer, Markermeer and the Randmeren. It is situated in the middle of the Netherlands and the area is of great importance to the Dutch economy. This is caused by the multifunctional characteristics of the area; the main functions are safety, agriculture, drinking water, shipping, recreation, water storage and industry. The society and environment are subject to continual change. Considering the functioning of the Wet Heart it is expected that both climate change and social-economic change will have their influence. The possible changes are anchored in future scenarios, which have their own development directions. These scenarios give expectations for the year 2040 (social-economic changes) and 2050 (climate change). The climate and socio-economic scenarios will have different consequences for the society. In this research the damage for agriculture and shipping in 2050 has been investigated. The damage for agriculture is the consequence of low groundwater levels, low soil moisture and a shortage of irrigation water. This will cause drought damage or starvation for the crops. Shipping will suffer consequences because of low water levels in the lakes, which has a negative influence on the transport capacity of the ships. In order to quantify and make an expectation of the scenario consequences a model has been developed; which is named the PAWN – Light model. In this model the scenarios for socioeconomic changes and climate change have been implemented. The data that varies between the scenarios is evaporation, precipitation and Rijn discharge (for climate scenarios) and area surfaces for the various types of land use. In the PAWN – Light model the compartments land are connected to the compartment surface water. These are connected to the IJsselmeer and Markermeer. The level of these lakes and the groundwater levels and soil moisture content will be calculated. The damage caused to both agriculture and shipping can be derived from these predicted levels. Using the PAWN - Light model eight scenario-runs have been carried out which show that significant effects are present in the scenario results. The socio-economic scenarios have a decreasing effect on damage consequences. This is caused by the surface decrease of the agricultural areas (-10% for the Regional Communities scenario and -17% for the Global Economy scenario). The remaining fraction agriculture is equal to the fraction in the reference scenario. The climate scenarios have a larger effect on the Wet Heart. Especially the climate scenario W+ has a large effect on the consequences for the IJsselmeer system. The increase of damage for agriculture is 31%. This first indication of the PAWN – Light model is that the current policy is not capable of correcting these consequences and adapting measures should be considered to be able to cope with future changes. Considering the model it is advised to execute further calibration and validation. This way the model can give more realistic values for agricultural damage when implementing scenarios or measures for future analysis. To determine shipping damage it is advised to implement a basic damage module for shipping into the PAWN – Light model.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Clients:
Deltares
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/59343
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