Presentation of uncertainty in model output to decision makers in flood management

Goedhart, Lea (2010) Presentation of uncertainty in model output to decision makers in flood management.

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Abstract:A combination of an increase in extreme weather situations and restricted capacity of water systems impose higher demands on the operational water management. Therefore, an increasing number of water boards decided to develop a Decision Support System (DSS), which is based on hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. These models are simplifications of reality and as a result of that uncertainty appears. This uncertainty could be located in several places of the model; for example model input, model structure and/or model output. To prevent decision makers from ‘wrong decisions’ with far-stretching consequences, it is essential that the uncertainty in the model output is communicated correctly to the decision makers, especially in flood management. The objective of this research is therefore, to determine the best presentation forms to communicate uncertainty in model results to decision makers in flood management
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Clients:
Deltares
Faculty:CTW: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Civil Engineering BSc (56952)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/59695
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