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Improving forecast accuracy : improving the baseline forecast for cheese products by use of statistical forecasting

Sommeren, F.A.H. van (2011) Improving forecast accuracy : improving the baseline forecast for cheese products by use of statistical forecasting.

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Abstract:This master thesis project was carried out at the supply chain department of FrieslandCampina Cheese. This research project, analyzes the applicability of statistical forecasting for cheese products. The project focuses on forecasts for baseline sales. Baseline sales are the sales that are left when promotion sales have been excluded. FrieslandCampina wants to use APO (a forecast module in SAP) to create statistical forecasts. In this research project, we explore the statistical models that are available in APO. Because APO cannot optimize the parameters for every statistical model, we create an advanced forecasting tool in Microsoft Excel to optimize the parameters per model. Our analysis indicates that implementation of statistical forecasting would benefit FrieslandCampina. Because of the great variety and amounts of products at FrieslandCampina, we select 80 products to analyze in our research. 72,5% of these products show an improvement in forecast performance.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Clients:
FrieslandCampina, Amersfoort, the Netherlands
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:85 business administration, organizational science
Programme:Industrial Engineering and Management MSc (60029)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/62384
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