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Slachtofferberekening bij een tunnelbrand: een verkenning naar een kwantitatieve risico analyse voor het berekenen van gewonden bij een tunnelbrand

Oosterveld, R. (2013) Slachtofferberekening bij een tunnelbrand: een verkenning naar een kwantitatieve risico analyse voor het berekenen van gewonden bij een tunnelbrand.

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Abstract:This report presents a model for performing a quantified risk analyses for injuries in road tunnels. This master thesis is written in the context of the Master Construction Management & Engineering commissioned by Royal HaskoningDHV. During the construction of a road tunnel, the topic of tunnel safety remains very important for the building process. A road tunnel has different facilities to make a road tunnel “safe”. Besides the concrete structures and geometry of the road tunnel, the tunnel is equipped with advances facilities such as a ventilation system and escape doors. These facilities and tunnel characteristics have an effect on the consequences during an emergency case. Accidents in road tunnels occur frequently. Over the past few years there have been a series of tunnel fires in Europe. Examples are: The Mont Blanc tunnel fire in France/Italy (1999), Tauerntunnel in Austria (1999), Viamala in Switzerland (2006) and recently the Gudvangatunnel in Norway (2013). As a result of these tunnel fires, with many fatalities, the international focus on safety in road tunnels is increased. Risk analysis are conducted to investigate the effects of safety facilities on both individuals and groups. These analyses are tools to make rational decisions and support decision-making. Since July 2013 a new tunnel law is introduced in the Netherlands. Several important changes have been introduced in this law. One of these changes is, that a Scenario Analysis (SA) is no longer required during planning and design. The SA is only required during the opening. As a result of this change, the emergency services are afraid that in the early stages the SA no longer will be executed. Therefore, the emergency services encounter the following problems; First of all there is missing an analyses of numbers of injured and the severity of the injuries as a result of the fire (or other incident) in a road tunnel. Furthermore the numbers of injured are only determined by expert opinion. Current injury modeling are only available for extern safety. There’s no modeling for the safety in road tunnels available. Based upon this dilemma the following goal developed: To design a model which can quantify the numbers of injured due to a tunnel fire, which can determine in the design phase the number of injured people due to a fire, in order that the proposed model can be used by emergency services to provide decision support in the field of calamity response and preparation for tunnel safety. The proposed model is based on the existing QRA-tunnels, literature and expert opinion. The model contains different scenarios which may occur during a tunnel fire. Based on these scenarios a ‘fault tree analysis’ is performed to determine the probability of a ‘top event’, in this case fire. In addition the model uses an ‘event tree’ to estimate the probabilities for each scenario. For the different scenarios the consequences are determined which contains three elements: assessment of the effect, determine the number of injuries due to the effects and a calculation of the injuries and mortality. To assess the severity of the injury different injury categories are proposed. For each effect the injury categories are plotted in a FN-curve, this will allow to evaluate the social risk. It is obligated to comply with the standard. Based on the proposed model three case studies are performed for three existing tunnel fires: The Mont Blanc tunnel fire (1999), the fire in the Tauerntunnel (1999) and the Viamala tunnel fire (2006). These case studies show a small chance of a ‘major fire’, but that the consequences in terms of injuries and fatalities can be enormous. Furthermore, they show that during a tunnel fire unexpected events can happen. In the results of the case studies bottlenecks are emerged. A ‘light’ overestimation of the number of persons present and an underestimation of the number of ‘CO-injury’. The latter result in also an underestimation of the number of fatalities. Therefore, the following recommendations are made. 1. The location and particular the starting point of the evacuation process of the exposed people should be estimate dynamically. 2. New CFD-Studies should be focused on the development of derivative formulas for injuries. 3. New research into different exit times of vehicles involving the exit times of buses. 4. Research the consequences of other toxic substances or combinations which injured persons. However, further research is necessary to estimate injuries in the case of a tunnel fire for the implementation in the existing QRA-tunnels risk analysis.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Clients:
Royal HaskoningDHV, Nijmegen, Nederland
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Construction Management and Engineering MSc (60337)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/63943
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