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Functionaliteitgericht ramen in de vroege projectfase : onderzoek naar ramen op basis van functionaliteit voor civiele projecten

Monninkhof, Dennis (2015) Functionaliteitgericht ramen in de vroege projectfase : onderzoek naar ramen op basis van functionaliteit voor civiele projecten.

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Abstract:Flyvbjerg et. al finished a research in 2002 to cost overruns in civiel projects. They concluded that 9 out of 10 civil projects have higher construction costs than estimated beforehand. These researches focussed on civil projects in Europe and North- Amerika. As a result, a new cost estimate standard was developed for Dutch civil projects, called the standard system for cost estimates (SSK). Primary goal of the SSK was to reduce cost overruns by creating more uniform cost estimates (CROW, 2010). A research by Cantarelli in 2011 concludes that there was no measurable difference in the number and size of cost overruns before and after the SSK was introduced. Based on these findings, the problem definition of this research was formulated as follows. Based on this problem definition the goal of this research is formulated. During this research a model is developed in order to make functionality based estimates. In this model distinction is made between the characteristics project-specific, reality and not projectspecific. Those characteristics are identified as essential for functionality based estimates and they are essential in order to solve or reduce the problem of costoverruns and underruns. The characteristics are assigned to sub models. For the characteristic project-specific a quantity model is designed. The characteristic reality is assigned to a neural network and for the characteristic not project-specific a Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) model is developed. Furthermore, it is concluded that it is useful to specify model on construction costs of a project, especially construction costs of road projects. The model for functionality based estimating includes construction costs of different project stages. For this research the next main research question is formulated. This main research question is supported by sub research questions, those are answered per chapter. The main conclusion of this research is that the model does not generate reliable results (yet), however the generated results are promising. This conclusion is also valid when distinction between the 3 sub models is made. - Quantity model (characteristic project-specific): Reliable for quantities overall, unreliable for separate quantities and projects. - Neural Network model (characteristic reality): Unreliable, However it performs better compared to a regression model. - RCF model (characteristic not project-specific): Outliers influence the validation of the RCF model. Recommendations on this research can be traced back by providing data and applying the research on a bigger dataset. Wherefore functionality based estimating has the potential to fit better for a specific project, kind of project work or the applied materials in a project. Does functionality based estimating in the early project stages of an civil project generate reliable results for estimating the costs? Increasing the accuracy of a cost estimate in order to decrease the variation of cost overruns and cost underruns. More uniform cost estimates have not led to a decrease in the size and variation of cost overruns and cost underruns. VIII Practical relevance of this research Currently much research is conducted for the theoretical possibilities for estimating with help of reference projects. Up to now, not much research is conducted in the way how to apply reference projects into a cost estimate. Due to the adaption of this research to the requirements of the client, this research has high practical relevance. This research could be seen as a start-up for applying reference projects in a cost estimate. It could also be a start-up for composing a database wherein different cost components are collected. Scientific relevance of this research During this research two cost estimate methods are combined, namely neural networks and reference class forecasting. Currently not much research is conducted for combining those two cost estimating methods, which could lead to new scientific findings. Furthermore, the distinction in cost categories and type of project costs in the RCF model is of scientific relevance. This because distinction in costs has not be applied before.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Wiiteveen+Bos, The Netherlands
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Construction Management and Engineering MSc (60337)
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