Shifting discharge altering risk : an exploratory study to assess the impact of the discharge distributions upon the flood risk of the upper-Rhine area of the Netherlands

Brandsma, E.C. (2016) Shifting discharge altering risk : an exploratory study to assess the impact of the discharge distributions upon the flood risk of the upper-Rhine area of the Netherlands.

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Abstract:The largest river in the Netherlands, the Rhine, bifurcates in several branches. The distribution of discharge amongst these branches is fixed by policy. As these distributions directly determine the water levels along the downstream river branches, they are expected to be an important factor in the risk of flooding during high water events. In this thesis, the impact of changing discharge distributions amongst the branches of the Rhine is investigated. The impact is measured in terms of risk; expressed in the expected damage in Euros per year. A literature study revealed that the current distributions originate from the 18th century, when they were established through constructions at the bifurcation points. Since then, little changes have been made to these points. Focussing on the upper river area of the Rhine, the risk of the current situation was calculated, using a numerical tool that was developed for this purpose. This tool calculated the water load based on the discharge statistics obtained from GRADE2015. The strength of the dikes along these branches was calculated from fragility curves, taking in to account the failure mechanisms overflow/overtopping, macro-stability, and piping. The total risk was calculated using the damage data from the VNK study. Starting from the current situation, the distribution of discharges was changed, calculating the risk for various distributions. This analysis showed that the total risk could be reduced by 35% when the distribution at the IJsselkop is modified, and 10% when changing the distribution at the Pannerdensche Kop. Although the accuracy of the tool was limited, due to incomplete data, the results of this study make it worthwhile to investigate this further as it is likely that the total risk will change for a different discharge distribution.`
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Subject:56 civil engineering
Programme:Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/71005
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