University of Twente Student Theses


Improving forecast performance of LPG demand

Thomasson, S.A. (2017) Improving forecast performance of LPG demand.

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Abstract:ORTEC has a customer that distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to its clients that own LPG bulk tanks, for which ORTEC should decide when to replenish and how much LPG to deliver. This is part of the inventory routing product, OIR. To be able to do this, ORTEC has a forecasting engine that is used to forecast LPG demand. Since LPG usage is often temperature dependent (more heating is required in the winter compared to how much is needed in the summer), a couple of years ago, they implemented a forecasting method that uses this temperature dependency. However, it was unclear how well this methodology performs and if it is suitable for each client. In 38% of the routes, one or more customers did not get their delivery, because the truck was empty before having visited all customers on the planned route. Only in 11.5% of the deliveries, the exact planned amount is delivered. This thesis aims to get insight into this matter by investigating if the forecast performance of LPG demand can be improved, and if so, how this can be achieved.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
ORTEC, Zoetermeer, The Netherlands
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:30 exact sciences in general, 31 mathematics, 50 technical science in general, 58 process technology
Programme:Industrial Engineering and Management MSc (60029)
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