University of Twente Student Theses


System Dynamics-based Scenario Planning

Engelbertink, D.G.L. (2019) System Dynamics-based Scenario Planning.

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Abstract:In order to remain competitive in complex environments driven by uncertainty, companies have to make strategic decisions which are robust in multiple futures. A popular strategic management tool which helps to cope with strategic direction in changing business environments is scenario planning. Scenario planning is conducted in environments or ‘’systems’’ which are highly complex. It has been found, people face difficulties in dealing with complex systems. Therefore, it is important to understand the system on which scenarios are based. The combination of system dynamics and scenario planning could leverage strengths, as system dynamics allows to address complexity in scenario planning. To address the research goal, the study started with a literature review to investigate the definition, features, schools of thought and approaches of scenario planning and system dynamics. Thereafter both theories were compared to uncover similarities, differences, and complementary factors. Based on the literature review, a combined approach of scenario planning and system dynamics was designed. After the approach had been designed, a short case study was conducted to illustrate and test the technique in order to assess the technique in an iterative way, and draw conclusions about the usability.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:85 business administration, organizational science
Programme:Business Administration MSc (60644)
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