University of Twente Student Theses
Spatial and temporal analysis of SARS-Coronavirus-2 concentration in wastewater and its association with other epidemiological indicators in The Netherlands
Hassan, Oladapo Abdulroqeeb (2021) Spatial and temporal analysis of SARS-Coronavirus-2 concentration in wastewater and its association with other epidemiological indicators in The Netherlands.
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| Abstract: | The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been a public health emergency of global concern since its outbreak in 2019/2020. In order to monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, public health authorities and universities have established a variety of dashboards worldwide. These dashboards usually track multiple epidemiological indicators such as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, deaths. In the Netherlands, wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is used as additional indicator serving as an early warning for (re-)emergence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in communities. Our research assesses the added value of the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA concentration data in relation to the standard epidemiological indicator data collected in the Netherlands across space and time. Publicly available secondary data on SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration and the epidemiological indicators were compiled into a unified spatial database involving data fusion and spatial (dis-)aggregation. Subsequent analysis consisted of three stages. In stage 1, the spatio-temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission were visualised through time series mapping at multiple geographic scales. In stage 2, the statistical association between all epidemiological indicators was assessed based on bivariate correlation analysis. In stage 3, the feasibility of using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater data – as a spatially disaggregate early warning indicator of transmission intensity – was determined based on cross-correlation analysis. Spatio-temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA concentration data and epidemiological indicators across geographical scales (national, safety region and municipality level) can be identified. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater have a medium to strong correlation with the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Considerable variations, however, are apparent across municipalities and the (much larger) safety regions. Cross-correlation results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations precede confirmed positive cases in most municipalities in the Netherlands. This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration data has potential as an early warning indicator useful for the public health officials to make informed decisions. Our novel spatio-temporal approach shows that SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration data has added value as a complementary epidemiological indicator. We recommend further testing of our methodology. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation |
| Programme: | Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/88775 |
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