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Economic Voting and the Euro Crisis – An analysis of national and European voting in Southern European countries from 2011 to 2018

Orhan, K.M. (2021) Economic Voting and the Euro Crisis – An analysis of national and European voting in Southern European countries from 2011 to 2018.

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Abstract:This thesis deals with the role of economic voting in Southern European countries using the statistical method of binary logistic regression. In the first part of the thesis, the author analyses the existing theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of economic voting. Next, a particular framework is developed and applied to Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy. After defining the methodological approach, the data sets used for the analysis are briefly described. To conclude, the results of the statistical analyses conducted with SPSS on the national and EU parliamentary elections in the Southern European countries between 2011 and 2018 are presented. It is shown that economic voting behavior was present in some of the countries under consideration, although it cannot be described as a universal phenomenon. The results of the analyses show that individual voting decisions are much more strongly influenced by perceptions of the general economic situation than by assessments of one's own economic circumstances. It can be said that the assessment of past economic development (retrospective) has a higher explanatory power rather than the outlook of future development (prospective) and it doesn’t only affect national governments but also the EU, because it is held responsible for the austerity measures during the Euro crisis. Moreover, the analysis reveals that Euroskepticism is located on the left side of the political spectrum in three out of four Southern European countries studied (Portugal, Spain and Greece). Although it may sound contradictory, Euroskepticism seems to not only be a feature of right-wing parties and their supporters. Keywords: economic voting; euro crisis; elections; Southern Europe; incumbent support; perceptions of economic responsibility
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:89 political science
Programme:European Studies MSc (69303)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/88808
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