University of Twente Student Theses
The future use of radiotherapy in the treatment of NSCLC and SCLC: a prediction
Bauhuis, Jan-Willem (2022) The future use of radiotherapy in the treatment of NSCLC and SCLC: a prediction.
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| Abstract: | Background: In the past, problems regarding the capacity of radiotherapy occurred in the Netherlands. This resulted in the opening of various satellite locations of existing radiotherapy facilities between 2008 and 2014. Over the last decade, the annual number of stage I-III NSCLC and SCLC diagnoses has increased. Also, the use of (stereotactic body) radiotherapy became more prominent in lung cancer treatment. This could lead to capacity problems again in the future. Therefore, accurate predictions are needed regarding the use of radiotherapy in 2030 for stage I-III NSCLC and SCLC. Methods: A framework of four steps was created. First, the annual number of stage I-III NSCLC and SCLC diagnoses in the period 2030-2034 was predicted. Second, a prediction model for the use of radiotherapy was made by using a random forest model. Third, a synthetic patient cohort was created for 2030 based on the results of step 1. Fourth, scenario analyses were performed by modifying the variables according to the expected results and creating new synthetic cohort. One example scenario was tested in which an additional radiotherapy facility was opened. Results: The annual number of stage I-III NSCLC and SCLC diagnoses is predicted to increase to 7640 patients. The prediction model provided an accuracy of 74.5%, a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 65.8%. 3930 patients are expected to receive radiotherapy in 2030. The example scenario provided similar results in terms of the number of predicted patients receiving radiotherapy. Conclusion: The number of patients receiving radiotherapy increased from 3288 patients in 2019 to 3930 predicted patients in 2030. Other scenarios that affect important predictors, e.g. stage or tumor grade, will most likely affect the use of radiotherapy. The framework performed in this study allows to work out these scenarios by altering the variables accordingly to the expected results. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | TNW: Science and Technology |
| Subject: | 42 biology, 44 medicine, 54 computer science |
| Programme: | Health Sciences MSc (66851) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/89365 |
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