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Socioeconomic Analysis of Informal Settlement Growth in Dar es Salaam: The concept for an agent based model

Young, Gina Felicia (2010) Socioeconomic Analysis of Informal Settlement Growth in Dar es Salaam: The concept for an agent based model.

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Abstract:Dar es Salaam‟s informal settlements are home to 70 – 80 % of the city‟s residents and are characterized by high housing densities, unstructured road infrastructure and inadequate water, electricity, and sewerage services. In such an informal settling, predicting land-use change may pose a challenge for conventional modelling techniques. In this study, empirical evidence was used to develop the concept for a spatially-explicit agent based model that can later be used to predict land-use change in an informal settlement in Dar es Salaam. The model incorporates the socio-economic drivers of development, the biophysical attractive and deterrent forces that affect location decision-making by households, as well as the effect of the macroeconomic conditions that impact the pace of development. A short household questionnaire survey and supplemental macroeconomic data were used to identify agents and determine their behaviour and its exogenous influences. The model concept was validated by third party individuals for its theoretical and logical correctness. The model is comprised of two main levels – micro and macro, and is influenced by global parameters, which should allow for experimentation with the computer-based model, and shows how the settling of agents at the local level affects the characteristics of the global system (macro-level). The successful implementation of the model concept lends itself to application to larger geographic locations within the city.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
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