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Building a land use component in a CA based METRONAMICA Model for Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia

Mohmand, Amir Khan (2010) Building a land use component in a CA based METRONAMICA Model for Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia.

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Abstract:Sustainable urban development has had important impacts on national policies of urban planning in developing countries. To monitor and manage urban growth in a sustainable manner, computer-based models have been developed to describe urban growth patterns. The validity of any cellular automata model depends very much on a good set of transition rules. This study focussed on the available methods that derive transition rules. Two methods, one enrichment factor method and combination of both enrichment factor and weights derived by analytical hierarchy process were used to shape the transition rules. Enrichment factor is used to characterize the neighbourhood of a location in a land use map. This neighbourhood characteristic are calculated for every cell in a series of enrichment factor calculations for the different land use types. To derive AHP weights for the sub factors affecting suitability and accessibility, interviews were conducted from the decision makers and experts of the municipality of Jeddah. Pair wise comparison was used to get the average weights for soil, slope and elevation affecting the suitability and for major roads, primary roads and secondary roads affecting the accessibility. Both the methods were tested to build a land use component in a CA based METRONAMICA Model for Jeddah City. At the first instance, Enrichment factor values were applied in the model and calibrated for the time period between 1980 and 1993. Kappa statistics were used for comparison of simulated and actual land use maps of 1993 of Jeddah city. The overall kappa after calibration was 0.70. Individual kappa for residential was 0.65, commercial was 0.40 and for industrial was 0.45. The calibrated rules were applied for the next time step between 1993 and 2007 to validate the land use model. Individual kappa for residential was 0.72, commercial was 0.47 and for industrial was 0.55. The overall kappa after validation was 0.77. In the second method, model was run with accessibility weights and actual enrichment factor rules. The overall kappa after simulation was 0.72. Individual kappa for residential is 0.69, for commercial was 0.57 and for industrial was 0.48. When model is validated between 1993 and 2007, the overall kappa was found 0.81. Individual kappa for residential was 0.74, commercial was 0.61 and for industrial was 0.69. From the results it is concluded that a combination of both enrichment factor and weights derived for accessibility through AHP is a better method for modelling land use change in Jeddah city.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
Link to this item:https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/90761
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