University of Twente Student Theses


Simulating the Spread of Pertussis in Enschede Region Using Agent-Based Modelling

Abdulkareem, Shaheen Abdullah (2010) Simulating the Spread of Pertussis in Enschede Region Using Agent-Based Modelling.

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Abstract:Epidemic disease out breaks is considered one of the main threats that have its impact on development in all countries as it has no geographical boundaries .There is a need to represent it geographically and analyze the spread of diseases using modelling tools. Simulating the human’s interactions is a complex process in general. Furthermore, the results of these interactions, which cause the spread infectious diseases is complex and required a lot of details and accuracy in simulating such phenomenon. Agent based modelling takes into consideration the spatial and temporal aspects of disease diffusion. Besides, it models the individuals contact process by contacting infected person or carriers and behaviour that affects this diffusion. The aim of this study is to create a prototype of geographically explicit agent based disease modelling for the spread of pertussis in the Netherlands covering some aspects of this complex social phenomenon; it provides a social interaction model integrated with a disease model to simulate the spread of pertussis in Enschede city. Agents movement over space from location to another based on activity time table according to their age. The pertussis disease model is built based on an existed model called Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (Yang and Atkinson 2007; Yang, Atkinson et al. 2008), and the principle of its disease model based on the simulation of pertussis presented by Hethcote (1999a). The city environment is an explicit GIS space containing the locations where agents are going to apply their activity patterns and interact with the other agents. Environment and agents has no direct interaction or effect on each other. The City of Enschede was selected as a study area. This city is a suitable study area for a pertussis model as it is large enough to meet the CCS (critical community size). The study built synthetic population of Enschede city, and provided its agents with same basic daily life activities to participate in. The result of their participation in their activities led the disease spread. The geographic spread of the model output (diffusion of the disease) was depending on the participation of infectious individuals in activities and interact with susceptible. Yet, within given results of this model, it is still important to simulate this disease in a geographically explicit way because of individuals are spreading the disease while they are moving from place to another. Currently the map extent of the simulation only includes part of the Enschede area. The research showed a prototype of a geographically explicit simulation for the Enschede region that is able to simulate 60,000 agents, at a time interval of 30 minutes for a longer period of time (month) using Repast Simphoy. The current spread of the disease shows a reproduction rate that is comparable to values found in literature.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
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