University of Twente Student Theses


Spatio-temporal analysis of ISs development. A case study of Istanbul, Turkey

Dubovyk, Olena (2010) Spatio-temporal analysis of ISs development. A case study of Istanbul, Turkey.

[img] PDF
Abstract:Istanbul and its suburbs informal development has created risky living conditions and led to environmental problems in natural areas. Until now, policies and actions implemented to address this issue were focused mainly on the physical interventions to informal settlements (IS). Even though this approach has proved to be quite effective in the past, it did not prevent further urban expansion. The main reason for this was the lack of sufficient knowledge about informal development. An enhanced understanding of this process is therefore the key for future success in efficient management of ISs and mitigation of related environmental impacts. This research aimed to improve understanding of the process of ISs development in Istanbul through comprehensive spatio-temporal analyses. First, it investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ISs during 1990-2005 in Sancaktepe district of Istanbul. To assess the scale of urban expansion the rate of changes of ISs development was calculated. This revealed that the area of ISs increased more than 110% between 1990 and 2005. Second, analyses of the driving forces of informal development and prediction of probable locations of ISs applying logistic regression (LR) modelling were performed. The list of spatial factors determining the ISs development was compiled based on expert knowledge obtained during fieldwork and literature review. The identified predictors were incorporated to build six logistic regression models (LRM) for different time steps between 1990 and 2005. Performance of the models was evaluated and validated to identify models which best explain the ISs development in the study area. As a result, three models built for 1990-1995 and 1995-2000 were selected to generate probability maps of ISs development showing the likelihood for each location to be informally developed. The derived coefficients from LRMs were used to explain how spatial factors influenced informal development between 1990 and 2005. It was found out that population density and slope were the main predictors influencing spatial development of ISs during the analyzed period of time. Finally, analyses of the spatio-temporal changes in the environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) due to informal development were performed. The maps of ESAs were produced based on analyses of environmental legislation of Turkey, expert knowledge, and existing maps. Derived maps of ESAs were compared with the maps of ISs and probability maps to identify ESAs which have been already occupied and have potential to be occupied by ISs. The results of the study can serve as a basis for the evaluation of the process of ISs development in the whole Istanbul. The applied methodology can be further used to study informal development in other cities and countries. At the same time the technique may serve as a decision making tool for urban planners and policymakers.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
Link to this item:
Export this item as:BibTeX
HTML Citation
Reference Manager


Repository Staff Only: item control page