University of Twente Student Theses


Simulating the spatial hierarchical spread pattern of pertussis in the Twente region using agent-based modeling

Olka, Rosemary (2011) Simulating the spatial hierarchical spread pattern of pertussis in the Twente region using agent-based modeling.

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Abstract:The spread of diseases is one of the major threats, to the growth and development of a nation. As diseases have a direct impact on the lives of the citizenry and the productivity of the nation in the long-term, diseases have always posed a great challenge to the global community especially infectious diseases. Pertussis is an airborne infectious disease caused by a bacterial infection. The regular and frequent movement of adolescents and adults contribute to the resurgence of pertussis outbreaks. The means of movement depict different disease diffusion process. Hierarchical spread is a type of disease diffusion processes where the spread of a disease is from a city to its hinterland. The existing pertussis model developed by [1] depict the contagious spread where the disease spreads by direct contact. The aim of this research is to adjust the existing pertussis model to include the commuting component in relation to the hierarchical disease process for a regional area (Twente region). To achieve this goal hierarchical spread is detected from the empirical pertussis data by adopting the approach used by by Broutin et al. [12]. Furness method is applied to the commuting data to obtain the origin and destination trips for work and education. Lastly, private means of transportation is integrated into existing pertussis model. From the analysis, hierarchical spread is detected in the empirical pertussis data and the source areas for the spread of pertussis in Twente region are found. It was observed that some cities (like Almelo) that do not have a size corresponding to the critical community size (CCS) also functioned as a source area for the spread of pertussis in Twente region. Cross-commuting behavior in Twente region is detected in the commuting data. The results obtained from the adjusted pertussis model also depicted hierarchical spread from a village to a city. Keywords Agent-based simulation, hierarchical spread, pertussis, commuting.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
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