University of Twente Student Theses


Probabilistic approach of overtopping’s effects on Macro stability in Zwolle Olst

Yaghi, M. (2022) Probabilistic approach of overtopping’s effects on Macro stability in Zwolle Olst.

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Abstract:As a daily part of our engineering world, engineers are always searching for ways to make our designs easier, which also saves us much time. Therefore, most designs are made according to a semi-probabilistic approach, which is developed by different probabilistic findings and cut down into simple equations that we can use. The research carries a probabilistic assessment for the dike ring south of Zwolle Olst. It checks whether the used semi-probabilistic norms/rules deliver a safe design or not according to the macro-stability failure mechanism. This assessment has been carried out by first making a design using the semi-probabilistic rules and then assessing them according to the FORM methodology norms, which perfectly suited the limitation of the research. Summerly, the difference between the two methods is that the semi-probabilistic approach works with fixed variables (deterministic). On the other hand, the probabilistic approach has a mix of both deterministic and stochastic variables. These stochastic variables are put in as a mean and a standard deviation. These differences have also raised speculations about how each approach dealt with certain design aspects—for example, modeling the phreatic line and the calculated overtopping probabilities. Furthermore, the research investigates how different the design would be according to both approaches, which proves the speculations that have been raised by the probabilistic assessment of the semi-probabilistic approach. Furthermore, the research also enlightens the reader about the limitations that the research had to go through and what could have differed the results if those limitation did not exist. Eventually, the research has found that the semi-probabilistic approach that is used for the selected dike ring is not safe enough and therefore needs further assessment to check its reliability.
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Programme:Civil Engineering BSc (56952)
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