Technology Assessment for Quantum Computing in the Energy Sector

Consultancy companies forecast that, in the energy sector, quantum computing will see commercial applications by 2030, allowing businesses to solve business problems that are computationally unsolvable for classical computers. These forecasts suggest that the energy sector will be one of the most impacted sectors seeing high increases in operational income. This paper aims to, by performing a technology assessment, validate the accuracy of the forecasts of these consultancy companies. We start by classifying the business problems that quantum computers can potentially solve into four different categories. Then we will present multiple scenarios that depict the possible evolution of quantum computing. For each scenario, we determine whether quantum computers will be able to solve these problems, determine their benefits and costs, and present the impacts they will have on businesses. We show that while the forecasts of the consultancy companies are indeed a scenario that could unfold, it is not a guaranteed outcome, as we are still unsure of the level of technology maturity and level of adoption that quantum computing will have.