University of Twente Student Theses


Finding the Impact of Demand Variability in Youth Psychiatry by Workload Forecasting

Lohschelder, A.J.M. (2023) Finding the Impact of Demand Variability in Youth Psychiatry by Workload Forecasting.

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Abstract:Psychiatric organisations throughout the Netherlands are burdened by long waiting lists of patients, including Company X. Therefore, Company X started an improvement programme to shorten the waiting lists and reduce workload fluctuations. The fluctuating workload and waiting lists are caused by the high demand variability. We developed a workload forecasting model to minimize the effects of the demand variability. Forecasting models create more insight into future demand and can thus identify bottlenecks and opportunities. Company X can utilize the forecasting model for intake planning and workload division over therapists. We developed two forecasting models; an exact model and a simulation model. The exact model is theoretically applicable and provides the most accurate results, but the long computation time limits its practical value. Therefore, we recommend the Monte Carlo simulation model to Company X. The model forecasts the weekly workload by giving a probability distribution of the number of appointments, weekly working hours, and weekly workload. In addition to the practical contribution to Company X, the research also has a scientific value. The scientific contribution follows from the generally applicable workload forecasting method using Monte Carlo simulation, which solves a problem that is also present in other psychiatric organisations in the Netherlands.
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:31 mathematics, 85 business administration, organizational science
Programme:Industrial Engineering and Management BSc (56994)
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