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Superfluous, but not useless : predicting surplus coalitions in Dutch municipal administration

Klaster, F.E. (2019) Superfluous, but not useless : predicting surplus coalitions in Dutch municipal administration.

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Abstract:Classical game theory generally predicts coalitions that are not minimal winning. As opposed to surplus coalitions, minimal winning coalitions lose the parliamentary majority if the smallest coalition member leaves the coalition. However, having studied 304 cases ensuing the 2018 Dutch municipal elections, only 54% of the coalitions that formed were minimal winning. This study therefore aimed to find the conditions under which surplus coalitions emerge. The study was quantitative and used a multivariate logistic regression model to predict surplus coalitions. The model shows a positive relationship between electoral localisation (Denters, 1985; Van der Kolk, 2000; Bäck, 2003) and the presence of surplus coalitions. In municipalities where there was no legal constraint on full-time surplus coalitions (Tops, 1990), 3.8 times as much surplus coalitions were formed as in municipalities where there was such a constraint. No significant direct effects of electoral volatility, political fragmentation, financial solvability or population size were found. As this study did not take into consideration ideological positions and interpersonal relationships, further research should be directed at qualitative studies, so that these concepts can be measured adequately.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:88 social and public administration, 89 political science
Programme:Public Administration MSc (60020)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/71684
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