How (not) to overcome right-wing populist governance : Exploring the influence of structural and electoral factors in the latest parliamentary elections in Poland and Hungary

Poland is the first case of a state within the European Union in which a right-wing populist government has been voted out of office in regular parliamentary elections. One of several counter-examples to this is Hungary, where a right-wing populist government is continuing to hold power. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to find out why the last parliamentary elections in Poland and Hungary had different outcomes. For this purpose, the following research question is posed: which factors explain the different election outcomes in the parliamentary elections in Poland (2023) and Hungary (2022)? Methodologically, this thesis follows Mill’s most similar cases design. First, the effects of right-wing populist governments on electoral fairness are examined by analysing ‘type of government majority’ and ‘duration in power’ as two structural factors. For this, I draw on the method of process tracing using quantitative data. To explore their influence, three indices measuring the quality of democracy are investigated. Then, the focus shifts to political strategies pursued by opposition and government in the electoral contest under consideration. It examines the impact of voter mobilisation and electoral alliances as opposition strategies on parliamentary election outcomes. For this purpose, the focus is on post-election surveys, as well as on further qualitative data like assessments and observations from country experts. This study shows that in Poland the excellent mobilisation of voters by the opposition was the most influential of the factors examined. In Hungary, a transition failed primarily because the government efficiently used its two-thirds majority to implement measures that promoted its own retention of power. Based on these results, opposition parties in countries governed by right-wing populists can adapt their strategies and thus increase their chances of electoral success.