University of Twente Student Theses
Assessing the Impacts of Compounding Hazards Like Heat Waves and Floods in Kerala, India
Kolaparambil, Faheed Jasin (2024) Assessing the Impacts of Compounding Hazards Like Heat Waves and Floods in Kerala, India.
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| Abstract: | In several regions across the world there is an increasing trend in compounding heat wave and flooding events. Heat waves and floods can, when occurring close to each other in time, significantly alter the water processes and dynamics during a multi-hazard event. Even though these type of multi-hazard occurrences can compound impact, they are generally studied separately, resulting in a poor understanding of their changes under climate change. In this study we consider the Periyar river basin of Kerala, India to assess the evolution of these hydrometeorological hazards with the help of Extreme temperature and precipitation indices to detect temperature and extreme precipitation events. The Floods and heatwaves were identified in historical (1986-2023) and future periods; near term (2015-2045), medium term (2046-2075) and Far term (2076-2100) under two SSP scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). A flood model was set up and calibrated using the FastFlood.org simulation platform. The population exposure to floods and heat waves were calculated for low land, mid land and high land in the region using projected population data. The study found an increasing trend in extreme precipitation and peak discharges, with higher peaks from 2001 to 2010, while extreme temperature indices rose, peaking between 2011 and 2023. The lowland and midland regions experienced higher precipitation extremes, and midlands saw the most significant increase in temperature extremes. The flood model showed 92% accuracy for the historical 2018 floods and the population exposure analysis to floods revealed midlands had the highest exposure for both 20 and 100 year return period flood scenarios. SSP2-4.5 showed medium-term peaks in extreme precipitation, while SSP5-8.5 indicated far-term peaks. Lowlands are projected to experience the highest precipitation extremes, and midlands the highest temperature extremes. Heatwave analysis suggested minimal events under SSP2-4.5 but up to 90 days under SSP5-8.5 in the far term. Population exposure to both floods and heatwaves is predicted to be higher under SSP2-4.5, particularly in the midlands. The study concludes that compounding heatwave-flood events, though historically rare, are likely to become more frequent and intense under future climate scenarios and to accurately predict and study this there should be more investment in accurately recording observation data. Future research should incorporate higher resolution datasets, region specific indices, consider dam discharge impacts, and utilize an ensemble of climate models for more accurate projections. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation |
| Subject: | 38 earth sciences, 43 environmental science, 74 (human) geography, cartography, town and country planning, demography |
| Programme: | Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/101474 |
| Export this item as: | BibTeX EndNote HTML Citation Reference Manager |
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