University of Twente Student Theses
Compounding Multi-Hazard Impact Assessment of Volcanic and Cyclone Hazards : A Case Study from Saint Vincent
Prasetya, S.R. (2024) Compounding Multi-Hazard Impact Assessment of Volcanic and Cyclone Hazards : A Case Study from Saint Vincent.
|
PDF
6MB |
| Abstract: | Since the last decade, disaster risk management literature starts to acknowledge the connections between disaster events and multiple contributing hazards. When multiple hazards occur, they worsen each other’s impact leading to the increase in the total impact. While there has been a massive improvement in assessing multi-hazards and their impacts, the hazard interaction itself is often neglected and not incorporated into the process. Identifying the interaction between hazard allows us to obtain comprehensive results by considering the sequence of events. Using the case study of the 2021 compounding events in Saint Vincent, this thesis tries to overcome this gap. A low-probability high-impact combination of compounding cyclone and volcanic event happened in 2021 in Saint Vincent. La Soufrière, their volcano, erupted and was followed by a cyclone. This thesis uses this event as the study case for assessing the impact of compounding hazards between volcanic eruption and tropical cyclones. This event was chosen due to its recent occurrence that can portray the current situation of the area. The proposed solution in this thesis is to use a retrospective approach and review historical events through impact chains. This assessment is then used as the basis for the development of future multi-hazard scenarios. The hazardous events of the scenarios of compounding volcanic eruption and tropical cyclones are then simulated with temporal and intensity variations. Considering the temporal sequence, the output of previous hazard simulations will be used as the input to simulate the next hazard events. This way, subsequent hazard interactions are incorporated. The retrospective assessment shows that lahar and ashfall are the main significant hazards related to volcanic eruption, whereas strong wind and rainfall are the ones for cyclone event in Saint Vincent. Focusing on these hazards, the result shows that highest winds and minimum central pressure of a cyclone does not directly define the tephra ground load deposits if it occurs simultaneously with an eruption. However, they affect the tephra column mass dispersal that eventually will affect the ground load deposits. The impacts are found most severe in the scenarios which either the cyclone has a rapid intensification and widespread deposition that causes thicker ground deposition. For lahars, most runout difference for each scenario is noticeable in the north-east coast. From the impact assessment, some towns in the north-east coast might be trapped and therefore improvement in health facilities are needed for those towns. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation |
| Subject: | 38 earth sciences, 43 environmental science |
| Programme: | Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/102143 |
| Export this item as: | BibTeX EndNote HTML Citation Reference Manager |
Show download statistics for this publication
Show download statistics for this publicationRepository Staff Only: item control page