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Counter-(Re)Formation in Dutch Local Politics? Modelling the Inclusion of Dutch Independent Locals in Municipal Boards

Heuzels, L.H. (2014) Counter-(Re)Formation in Dutch Local Politics? Modelling the Inclusion of Dutch Independent Locals in Municipal Boards.

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Abstract:This thesis observes to what extent Dutch independent locals are included in municipal boards after the 2014 municipal elections. Moreover, this thesis tests three hypotheses containing factors that might explain inclusion in municipal boards. The three factors combined try to answer the following main research question: “What factors determine whether or not an independent local party will be included in the municipal board after municipal elections?” I was able to make three hypotheses from the theory: 1. Independent locals with relative (%) more number of seats in the municipal council are more likely to be included in the municipal board than independent locals with a relative (%) smaller number of seats. 2. Independent locals that address relatively (%) more issues are more likely to be included in a municipal board than local parties that address relatively (%) less issues. 3. Independent locals with a central ideological position are more likely to be included in a municipal board than independent locals that have a more extreme ideological position. Using logistic regression analysis, I find that the position of the party has no statistically significant influence on the probability of being included in the municipal board. On the other hand, I show that relative size and issue-diversity do matter for a party’s chances of being included in a municipal board. Summarizing, this means that hypotheses 1 and 2 are confirmed and hypothesis 3 is rejected. This outcome raises question whether this research overlooks an important variable in modelling local coalition formation outcomes. Suggested is that the personal preference of politicians for a certain coalition partner and independent locals being the relative newcomers on the block of municipal politics are also of influence in the coalition formation outcome. This is to be researched in the future with mixed quantitative-qualitative research designs, using methods like process tracing.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:89 political science
Programme:Public Administration MSc (60020)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/66370
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