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Effect of travel restrictions between provinces in the Netherlands on the spread of COVID-19

Leemeijer, Wout (2021) Effect of travel restrictions between provinces in the Netherlands on the spread of COVID-19.

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Abstract:To look at the effect of travel restrictions in the Netherlands, a model is developed that integrates the effect of commuting into a basic SIR-model, which models the spread of COVID-19 in each of the the Dutch provinces separately and in the entirety of the Netherlands. Based on available commuting data, the commuting parameters between each of the provinces are estimated, and based on the data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands the infection rate and the recovery rate are estimated by making use of a least-squares approximation. This model shows that not allowing any travel between the provinces will lead to less infections and hence less deaths in the entire Netherlands. However, looking at the provinces, the amount of infections shows that there are some differences. Some provinces will have less infections if commuting is not allowed, but there are also some provinces that will have more infections in case commuting is not allowed. This can be explained by the fraction of people commuting in and out of the province and by the fraction of people that are infected in each province. Future research in this model is possible, where vaccination is included into the model or the infection and recovery rate is estimated with a different approach.
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Faculty:EEMCS: Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science
Subject:31 mathematics
Programme:Applied Mathematics BSc (56965)
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/essays/86703
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