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Predicting future landslide susceptibility using estimated future land cover scenario in Idukki, Kerala

Ishmam, Md. Sudman Kabir (2021) Predicting future landslide susceptibility using estimated future land cover scenario in Idukki, Kerala.

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Abstract:The interrelationship between landslide susceptibility and land cover is not a very well explored area of science. This study thrives to investigate the way future land cover scenarios characterize future landslide susceptibility and vice versa. The modelling approach involves two different scenarios, one where land cover can change without any consideration to landslide susceptibility and the other where land cover changes in a manner that the landslide susceptibility is well-accounted for a duration of forty years (2010-2050). For an inventory of 2018, landslide susceptibility modelling was conducted through a Bayesian version of GAMM (Generalized Additive Mixed Model) built in R-INLA, whereas land cover prediction was conducted using the DynaCLUE model for 2010’s land cover data. In the scenario where landslide susceptibility is accounted for, the outputs of both the models were considered as inputs in each other. Results show interesting differences in land cover and landslide dynamics. Changes in land cover with landslide susceptibility mitigation measures resulted in low landslide susceptibility as opposed to the one where no mitigation measures were in place. Landslide susceptibility dynamics also characterized the propagation of different land cover classes over space as directed by the scenario rulesets. This modelling approach can set the basis of a further research as well as help policy makers and legislators for pre-informed decision making. High resolution and recent datasets can significantly improve the model performances while iteration of different scenarios may provide vital insights.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation MSc (75014)
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