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Assessing potential disruptions from earthquakes in the historical peninsula of Istanbul using 3D models

Vries, J. de (2022) Assessing potential disruptions from earthquakes in the historical peninsula of Istanbul using 3D models.

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Abstract:The increased number of city networks such as 100 Resilient Cities and Global Resilient City Networks, proves the importance of making cities disaster resilient. The major difficulty in this trajectory is the interrelated components in urban systems that influence each other and increase uncertainty in the risk assessment and management. Two-dimensional representations (e.g. maps and plans) do not take the effects of such a dynamic environment into account sufficiently. As a result, potential disruptions in a city caused by disasters in combination with the complexity of an urban system can be overlooked. Thus, static solutions are provided for a dynamic and complex environment. Istanbul is such an urban system that is in need of risk mitigation, as it is at increased risk to earthquakes and the cascading effects. This study analyses the potential disruptions that impact traffic control with the help of a multi-hazard risk assessment for the historical peninsula of Istanbul. 3D modelling is introduced for the visualisation of disaster risk to support the communication of the causes of such potential disruptions. The additive normalization indicator-based approach is used to assess the socioeconomic, road and systemic vulnerability and risk. Besides, the EMS-98 Macroseismic method is applied to determine the building vulnerability and damage grades. The results show that the socioeconomic vulnerability is high to very high which is likely to contribute to traffic congestions and communication issues between the disaster coordinating bodies. Most buildings are expected to be ‘very heavily damaged’. Consequently, while roads have low risk to damage, there is high risk for road blockages in the narrow streets of the case study area. These are areas where systemic risk is increased and accessibility for emergency services likely becomes obstructed. The application of 3D models improves the recognition of buildings and the identification of the causes of road blockages.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Faculty:ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
Programme:Spatial Engineering MSc (60962)
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