University of Twente Student Theses


Conflicts at railway stations due to delay propagation

Janssen, Renske (2022) Conflicts at railway stations due to delay propagation.

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Abstract:In railway systems, secondary delays occur when a delayed train causes delays for other trains as well. In the Dutch Railway Network, for passengers, this seems to happen regularly, but it is not tracked how often it occurs. To find, this report proposes a mathematical model based on queuing theory from communication systems, resulting in an acceptance probability for the train lines arriving at the station. Next to the model, a simulation is made with the same assumptions. The results for both are compared. Also, insensitivity was proven for the model and tested in the simulation, resulting in a more accurate representation of reality. Both were applied to a simple made-up station and the Dutch station Arnhem C. and Amersfoort C. For the latter, with input variables based on data, a general acceptance rate of 46% and 69% was found, respectively, but in both cases it highly depends on the different arriving train lines. As multiple assumptions have been made for the model, this will be an overestimation of reality and it can be seen as an upper limit. Improvements for the model have been proposed to attain more realistic results.
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Faculty:TNW: Science and Technology
Subject:31 mathematics
Programme:Advanced Technology BSc (50002)
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