University of Twente Student Theses


Trend analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Meuse catchment, obtained with re-forecasts from the ECMWF

Booij, B. te (2022) Trend analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Meuse catchment, obtained with re-forecasts from the ECMWF.

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Abstract:A fast-changing climate results in extreme events, that become more extreme as time proceeds, in the Meuse catchment. Therefore, extreme weather events from the past are not that relevant for the present. This reduces the amount extreme events that are suitable for trend analysis. Due to the shorter observation period that is relevant, the technique of ensemble re-forecasts is used to ’increase’ the number of extreme events of the most recent years (1996-2015). By applying a trend analysis, it is possible to see if those extreme events indeed become more extreme over time. This is beneficial for water management and shows how drastic the change of extreme events is. This research studies, if there is a positive trend in re-forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the Meuse catchment. The trend analysis is applied to different scenarios, to see whether there is a positive trend in short or long precipitation events. The type of events are one-day, three-day and five-day events. Additionally, an analysis of annual and seasonal events (summer and winter) was done, to determine if there is a difference between summer and winter. A total of four statistical tests have been used for the trend analysis, including a power of detection analysis and extension of the data. The results showed a rather low detection power for all statistical tests. However, a positive trend was present for all types of events annually. Only the one-day event received a p-value below the critical 5%, making it very significant. Especially the summer events have a large influence on the annual trend analysis. The winter events show a negative trend, proved by the very low p-values of the statistical tests and the visual analysis.
Item Type:Essay (Bachelor)
Faculty:ET: Engineering Technology
Programme:Civil Engineering BSc (56952)
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