University of Twente Student Theses


Forecasting patient arrival at an emergency department

Kauffeld, Bastiaan (2023) Forecasting patient arrival at an emergency department.

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Abstract:The healthcare sector is facing increasing demand due to a growing and aging population. This presents a challenge in maintaining high-quality care while keeping healthcare affordable and accessible. To address this challenge, the healthcare sector must work more efficiently, including the efficient utilization of resources such as staff and equipment. Forecasting can assist in utilization these resources, by aligning patient demand with staff and equipment availability. In this thesis we develop a forecasting model to predict daily patient arrivals at the Emergency Department (ED) of Diakonessenhuis Utrecht. We compare the performance several penalized linear regression models, along with a Random Forest, and recommend the use of a Lasso regression model for forecasting ED arrivals. The most predictive variables for ED arrivals are weekdays and months.
Item Type:Essay (Master)
Diakonessenhuis, Utrecht, Netherlands
Faculty:BMS: Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences
Subject:85 business administration, organizational science
Programme:Industrial Engineering and Management MSc (60029)
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