University of Twente Student Theses
Transitioning to cost-optimal renewable energy systems under uncertainty
Wieringen, Seth van (2021) Transitioning to cost-optimal renewable energy systems under uncertainty.
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| Abstract: | In light of the need for increased climate action, various countries are in the process of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system. Policymakers and energy planners are tasked with making high-impact strategic decisions under uncertainty. Energy system modelling and analysis is considered a vital instrument for informing decision-makers of transition pathways. The Dutch energy transition is informed mainly by descriptive energy models used to evaluate the performance of predefined systems in distinct scenarios. In contrast to energy system optimisation models, this approach lacks the ability to provide insight into the optimality of the defined scenario. Optimisation models entail a high level of complexity and cannot be validated. As a consequence, model outcomes cannot be considered normative by policymakers, and results remain indicative. Various methods to decrease structural uncertainty have been introduced. The near-optimal design space is discovered by applying these methods, allowing policymakers to obtain insight into energy system design trade-offs. Other than statistical methods, there is no method to deal with parametric uncertainties. A novel approach to deal with parametric uncertainty is to apply exploratory modelling analysis. By applying this method to several case studies within the province of Gelderland using the optimisation model developed in this thesis, insight is obtained into the effect of exogenous cost uncertainties. In addition to this systematic method, clustering is used to visualise patterns in optimal system configurations and are consequently analysed to determine synergies and dynamics. It is concluded that this approach is valuable for increasing policy relevance of energy system optimisation models. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ET: Engineering Technology |
| Subject: | 52 mechanical engineering |
| Programme: | Mechanical Engineering MSc (60439) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/97136 |
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