University of Twente Student Theses
Historical meteorological time series in transfer function-noise modelling : How extreme are current groundwater levels?
Schutten, W.A. (2024) Historical meteorological time series in transfer function-noise modelling : How extreme are current groundwater levels?
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| Abstract: | Groundwater is an important part of the water availability in the Netherlands and serves as a necessary source for agriculture, industry, drinking water and nature. To protect the groundwater availability, it is crucial to monitor groundwater levels as this provides insight into current groundwater conditions. The dry summer of 2018 demonstrated that sufficient groundwater availability cannot be guaranteed every year, in large parts of the Netherlands. Among other things, a changing climate, increased groundwater withdrawals and changes in the water system have made the Netherlands vulnerable to groundwater droughts. Therefore, it is important to have insight in the long-term behaviour of groundwater levels, to make optimal and justified decisions on groundwater policy and the implementation of structural measures. However, the limited availability and applicability of long-term groundwater observations hinders the understanding of long-term groundwater fluctuations, the classification of extreme dry conditions, and the frequency of extreme drought events. This study presents long-term groundwater levels for four locations in the Netherlands. For the first time, a data-driven time series model is combined with historical meteorological data to simulate groundwater levels for the period 1910-2022. The time series analysis is conducted using a transfer function-noise model, in which fluctuations of groundwater levels are modelled by precipitation and evaporation data. The simulated groundwater levels are historical projections based on the current climate and groundwater system, which allows for different drought statistics to be derived and compared with groundwater observations. The findings of this study indicate that groundwater observations over the last eight years do not provide a comprehensive representation of long-term groundwater levels. Long-term groundwater simulations offer improved insights, particularly in estimating return periods of droughts. Furthermore, the choice of drought statistic plays a crucial role the characterisation of drought intensity, duration, and frequency. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Clients: | HKV, Amersfoort, Netherlands |
| Faculty: | ET: Engineering Technology |
| Subject: | 56 civil engineering |
| Programme: | Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/98507 |
| Export this item as: | BibTeX EndNote HTML Citation Reference Manager |
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