University of Twente Student Theses
Analysing and predicting the costs of the Amsterdam Quay Wall renovation project; using parametric estimation
Molin, B.J. van der (2024) Analysing and predicting the costs of the Amsterdam Quay Wall renovation project; using parametric estimation.
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| Abstract: | In the centre of Amsterdam, a large project is executed. This project is to inspect all 215 kilometres of quay wall in the city and renovate where necessary. To keep up with the maintenance, 2 kilometres of quay wall renovation needs to be done every year. However, currently the budget available is only half that of the necessary budget. Furthermore, the cost differences between the projects in the first batch were very large. Therefore, the municipality of Amsterdam requested Witteveen+Bos to research the costs of the quay wall renovation project. The goal of this research is to provide insight into the costs of renovating quay wall projects in Amsterdam. This is achieved by finding Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) in historical data of quay wall renovation projects, which helps to understand the costs in the projects and predict costs in future projects. Furthermore, determine what the costs are of requirements from the municipality of Amsterdam. Finally, to provide recommendations based on the findings in the research and on how to improve the research in the future. To build the dataset, projects are gathered. Project data from the municipality of Amsterdam and the Witteveen+Bos server is used. Then, the cost data of the projects is structured using a classification system. This is done to see what the project costs are composed of. When comparing the cost composition per project it becomes clear that large differences exist in the costs per project. Furthermore, the cost categories themselves are examined, to find the largest costs and largest contributors to the costs in the project. It is found that on average the foundation costs are the most expensive part of the project. The foundation also has the largest standard deviation, making it the largest contributor to the cost differences. The Cost Estimation relationships are determined using regression analysis. First possible predictors are determined, second the predictor data is gathered, third the data is normalised for inflation and the side projects and requirements are removed. Then, simple linear, nonlinear, and multiple linear regression analyses are done, and later on, the best results are validated. The best CER models found are the Contract type and Length to the Costs(€), and the Contract type and retaining area to the Costs per meter (€/m). The contract type is good at explaining the cost differences between the projects, however, the use for prediction is questionable, due to the municipality of Amsterdam switch in the use of contract types around 2020. Then, the costs of the requirements from the municipality of Amsterdam are looked into by analysing the costs of trees, BLVC measures, Transport HUB & NTC and houseboat costs. It is found that the costs of retaining a large historical tree are the highest. Based on the findings in the research, recommendations are given to the municipality of Amsterdam. The most important advice is to only use the IPK (Innovation Program Quay walls) and RAW (the standard contract type for civil works) contract types since the SOK (Cooperation Agreement Quay wall constructors) is the most expensive contract type of these three as can be seen In the developed Cost Estimation Relationships. Then advice is given for further data gathering. Where the most important predictors to gather are given. The results of the research provide insights into the costs of the quay wall renovation project in Amsterdam. These insights can be used to reduce the costs of future quay wall renovation projects. By making better choices based on the type of contract type, or to work for longer stretches/ increase the construction speed. Furthermore, the advice can be used to improve the research in the future by more precisely gathering and storing data. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Bachelor) |
| Faculty: | ET: Engineering Technology |
| Programme: | Civil Engineering BSc (56952) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/98647 |
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