University of Twente Student Theses
Robustness of hydrological models for simulating impact of climate change on high and low streamflow in the Lesse
Berge, A.A. ten (2024) Robustness of hydrological models for simulating impact of climate change on high and low streamflow in the Lesse.
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| Abstract: | Hydrological models are used to simulate the rainfall-runoff transformation to quantify impacts of climate change on extreme streamflow. However, parameters of hydrological models optimized for historic conditions may not be valid for future scenarios. This study evaluated the robustness of two hydrological models for simulating impacts of climate change on high and low streamflow in the Lesse catchment, Belgium. The HBV and GR6J models were evaluated on historic periods that resemble climatic conditions projected by the KNMI’23 climate scenarios. Both models showed a loss in performance in validation periods that resemble future conditions compared to calibration periods with historic conditions. However, both models still performed acceptable, possibly due to the use of a multi-objective function for calibration. The median change in annual maximum daily discharge was projected to be between -14% and +27% in 2100 compared to 1991-2020. The median projected change in annual minimum 7-day mean discharge was between -66% and +13%. The uncertainty was mainly due to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions and climate response. However, uncertainty subject to model structures and calibration approaches cannot be neglected. It is important that the ability of hydrological models to simulate climate change impacts is not taken for granted. Improving model structures may improve robustness and therefore contribute to a projection of the impact of climate change in the future with less uncertainties. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ET: Engineering Technology |
| Subject: | 56 civil engineering |
| Programme: | Civil Engineering and Management MSc (60026) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/98813 |
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